Message-ID: <8840616.1075863409331.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 08:53:23 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Oct 25, 2001
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON
X-To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \VKAMINS (Non-Privileged)\Kaminski, Vince J\Deleted Items
X-Origin: Kaminski-V
X-FileName: VKAMINS (Non-Privileged).pst

=20
[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
d like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncr=
asy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscrib=
e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this da=
ily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co=
m     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please =
reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 1=
1:24AM ET    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 09:51AM ET =
 Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote     Congratulatio=
ns Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUIL=
A/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: =
AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tem=
perature'     Today: Thursday, October 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta=
 Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 79 +4 =
FRCC(SE) 85 -1 MAAC(NE) 71 +2 MAIN(CTR) 48 -2 MAPP(HP) 41 -2 NPCC(NE) 67 +3=
 SERC(SE) 77 +2 SPP(SP) 64 NC WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 52 -1 WSCC(SW) 75 NC =
    Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW =
Mean 43 44 63 51 49 73 71 73 Max 49 52 67 55 55 79 78 78 Min 38 36 61 47 39=
 69 61 68 Range 11 16 6 8 16 10 17 10 StD-P 2.4 3.9 2.1 2.5 4.8 3.5 4.8 2.8=
 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Powerhouse storm is=
 about to exit. The coldest air of the season is about to enter. A signific=
ant warm up will commence late in the period.  The "storm of the century", =
"Superstorm", or whatever you want to call yesterdays event was over-hyped =
a bit in my opinion, but significant in some respects. There were some larg=
e tornadoes in Northern Indiana and the surface low pressure center had one=
 of the lowest readings I have seen in an October storm. Otherwise, it was =
a squall line of t-storms with a turn to colder and windier weather, things=
 we have certainly seen before and will see again. The cold front should re=
ach the Atlantic coastline later today and another line of t-storms may cer=
tainly go up along it. We also have some measurable snow in Minnesota this =
morning and could see "some" lake effect snows! through Friday. Once this s=
torm is off the field, the only inclement weather threats appear to be the =
PNW from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and in Florida from something tropi=
cal. I do not mean from a named storm or hurricane, but merely that the dis=
turbance originated in the Caribbean. A large polar air mass has swept in b=
ehind this storm insuring a drier and cooler than normal pattern from the M=
ississippi River and East through the weekend. The Plains start to warm ear=
ly next week is ridging starts to evolve in response to troughing off the W=
est Coast. Neither of these features look particularly strong in the short =
term and overall weather in the West has a benign look to it.  Tomorrow: Fr=
iday, October 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matri=
x    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enl=
arge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 5=
2 NC MAIN(CTR) 48 NC MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 49 -1 SERC(SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 6=
6 NC WSCC(NW) 61 +1 WSCC(RK) 60 +2 WSCC(SW) 76 +1     Range Standard Deviat=
ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 47 46 57 55 63 69=
 73 Max 47 58 50 61 63 70 78 77 Min 35 38 41 52 44 56 58 68 Range 12 20 9 9=
 19 14 20 9 StD-P 2.8 5.1 2.5 2.8 5.8 3.8 5.3 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 1=
0 10   Day 3: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. =
  Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Cli=
ck on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE=
) 69 -2 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 NC MAPP(HP) 49 -1 NPCC(NE) 48 +2 SERC(S=
E) 59 NC SPP(SP) 65 NC WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK) 66 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 NC     Ran=
ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40=
 56 43 51 61 56 69 69 Max 47 62 48 57 68 61 74 73 Min 34 49 40 47 53 50 60 =
65 Range 13 13 8 10 15 11 14 8 StD-P 3.5 4.4 2.7 2.7 5.2 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count =
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +=
1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 59 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 =
NC SERC(SE) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 70 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 62 +1 WSCC(SW) 70 +=
1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 46 57 41 48 58 54 69 64 Max 55 63 48 54 65 61 75 70 Min 42 51 37 45 =
52 49 64 62 Range 13 12 11 9 13 12 11 8 StD-P 3.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.3 2=
.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT=
(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP) 54 NC NPC=
C(NE) 52 +1 SERC(SE) 66 -1 SPP(SP) 70 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 58 -1 WSCC=
(SW) 68 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW R=
K SE SP SW Mean 50 54 47 49 54 58 69 63 Max 56 58 54 55 61 67 75 69 Min 45 =
50 43 46 49 52 63 60 Range 11 8 11 9 12 15 12 9 StD-P 4.3 3.2 3.1 2.2 3.6 4=
.7 4.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I don't have a lo=
t of change from yesterdays 6-10 day outlook other than advancing things by=
 one day. Warming that kicks in for the Plains advances East.Relative to no=
rmal this will be more pronounced initially in the North than the South tho=
ugh by late in the period all will share. I mentioned an atmospheric turnar=
ound yesterday and still feel there is potential by the middle of next week=
 to become almost as warm as the recent warm episode. The pattern remains p=
rogressive, but not as volatile as recent weeks. Charts show another trough=
 pushing through the Plains and Eastern U.S. but it does not have the ampli=
tude that the current one does. Therefore, it can't tap the arctic air and =
bring it down. I have a fairly high confidence level that the first week of=
 November will be mild for the nation as a whole.  Day 6: Tuesday, October =
30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE=
]   ECAR(CTR) 57 -2 ERCOT(SP) 75 NC FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR)=
 56 -1 MAPP(HP) 52 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 -2 SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +2 WSCC(NW) =
54 NC WSCC(RK) 56 +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I=
MAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 56 47 48 51 60 66 61 Max 55 58 =
54 54 57 71 74 68 Min 47 54 44 44 48 57 60 58 Range 8 4 10 10 9 14 14 10 St=
D-P 2.7 1.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 4.1 4.6 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Wednesda=
y, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix  =
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarg=
e)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -=
4 MAIN(CTR) 58 NC MAPP(HP) 55 -2 NPCC(NE) 50 -5 SERC(SE) 70 NC SPP(SP) 68 +=
1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 NC WSCC(SW) 67 +1     Range Standard Deviation=
 [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 55 46 48 46 64 68 62=
 Max 57 58 52 54 55 72 74 67 Min 50 52 41 44 40 61 65 58 Range 7 6 11 10 15=
 11 9 9 StD-P 2.1 2.2 4.1 3.0 6.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8=
: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatilit=
y Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image=
 to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 NC ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 73 -1 MAA=
C(NE) 57 +1 MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 53 -1 NPCC(NE) 51 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 SP=
P(SP) 65 +4 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +2     Range Standard=
 Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 54 54 47 4=
7 68 71 64 Max 58 57 56 54 54 73 75 68 Min 54 52 53 43 42 67 68 61 Range 4 =
5 3 11 12 6 7 7 StD-P 1.0 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5=
   Day 9: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Vol=
atility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on=
 image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 =
-1 MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +3 MAPP(HP) 49 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 -1 SERC(SE) 65=
 +1 SPP(SP) 62 +2 WSCC(NW) 46 -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range St=
andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 50 5=
5 47 44 67 69 65 Max 56 59 55 49 55 69 69 69 Min 52 46 54 46 38 66 69 62 Ra=
nge 4 13 1 3 17 3 0 7 StD-P 1.4 4.4 0.6 1.1 5.5 0.9 0.2 2.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4=
 4 4 4   Day 10: Saturday, November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Te=
mp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
(Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 -1 FRC=
C(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 61 +2 MAIN(CTR) 50 +4 MAPP(HP) 49 +3 NPCC(NE) 56 -1 SE=
RC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 55 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 -6 WSCC(RK) 47 +1 WSCC(SW) 65 NC    =
 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 48 45 54 43 40 65 62 57 Max 52 51 57 45 48 67 65 64 Min 39 36 49 38 31 62=
 59 49 Range 13 15 8 7 17 5 6 15 StD-P 4.8 6.0 3.5 2.7 8.1 2.5 1.6 7.3 Coun=
t 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for th=
e  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can =
also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.tru=
equote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
